Ukraine has increased strikes with drones on Russian oil sites. One of the refineries being attacked is in Tuapse, and it hasn’t been working since April.
Ukraine has increased its long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Overnight, it hit a major plant in the Black Sea port city of Tuapse in the latest effort to make Moscow’s war machine less powerful. Thick clouds of poisonous black smoke rose into the sky over Tuapse after the strike. Because of the dangerous chemicals in the air, local officials had to tell people to stay inside with their windows closed. The plant hadn’t been working since April 16 because of an attack by Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine has been attacking important parts of Russia’s huge energy network for the past two months. These include the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which together handle about 40% of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, as well as other sites deep inside Russia.
Officials in Ukraine say the attacks are aimed at equipment that helps Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. The strikes also serve to warn regular Russians that the war is no longer just happening in faraway places.
People in Tuapse, which is more than 300 miles from the closest area held by Ukraine, have seen black drops that look like oil dropping from the sky and big slicks of oil spreading across the Black Sea. More than 100 firefighters were sent to fight the fire, and some people who lived close were told to leave their homes.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, said that the attacks were bad and that they were making the world’s oil shortage worse at a time when supplies are already tight because of the war in the Middle East and problems in the Strait of Hormuz.
But so far, Ukraine’s operation has not done much to hurt Russia’s general oil income, even though there is clear damage and chaos.
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former economist in the oil business, says that, because of the strikes, Russia did produce less oil in late March and early April. But since then, output has gone back up. More importantly, the war in Iran has caused oil prices to rise around the world. This has helped Russia make more money from oil sales, which has kept most of Moscow’s war chest intact.
In what ways have the recent drone attacks changed Russia’s oil exports?
Recent drone attacks by Ukraine have stopped about 40% of Russia’s oil exports, affecting important places such as Novorossiysk, Primorsk, and Ust-Luga. This big problem is the biggest in Russia’s recent history, and it happened at the same time that oil prices were rising around the world because of the war in Iran. Ukraine wants to make it harder for Russia to pay for its war by attacking its oil infrastructure.
Vakulenko said that while Ukrainian drone attacks on oil plants and export ports can give Russia short-term problems, steady, high-intensity attacks on many important sites at the same time would be needed to really hurt Russia’s economy.
He said, “If they can keep the flow of drones at the same level as on Ust-Luga and increase it at Primorsk and Novorossiysk, then they could make a pretty big dent.” “But it depends on how many drones they have.”
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What steps is Russia taking to stop the threats from Ukraine?
Because Ukraine used drones to attack Russia’s oil infrastructure, the country’s security has been tightened all over. The Kremlin has called these strikes terrorist acts and is likely to strengthen its military and energy defenses to keep oil output going even though threats are still present.Russian air defenses are still shooting down most of the drones in each Ukrainian barrage. This means that Kyiv would have to launch many large-scale attacks over and over again to shut down Russian oil sites for long periods of time. So far, the effort has caused problems and forced Russia to change its plans in order to protect its energy infrastructure. For now, though, it’s still hard to turn these tactical wins into real strategic damage to Russia’s economy.
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How does the war in Iran affect the price of oil around the world?
Because of the current war in Iran, oil sources have been severely harmed, which has caused Brent crude prices to rise above $100 per barrel. This rise has been good for Russia because it means more money from oil sales as people around the world look for options to oil from the Middle East. The war has completely changed how the market works, which has helped Russia take advantage of higher prices.
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