California has been experiencing a series of consecutive Pacific-based changing storm systems this week, leaving widespread rains, heavy mountain snow, high winds, flooding potential, and dangerous travel throughout much of the state. This has been one of the busiest weather active weeks in late winter (in terms of storms) for a long time, marking the end of a long dry spell with significant precipitation increases.
Storm 1 – Heavy Rain and Snow
The first of two consecutive storms made landfall on Sunday and have produced substantial precipitation so far. Rain has ranged from moderate to heavy in Northern and Central California due to these storm systems, while snow has reached the Sierra Nevada and other higher elevations. Rainfall amounts are expected to be 1-3 inches in the Bay Area, while gusty winds are expected up to 40 mph.
Southern California has experienced heavy rains beginning late Sunday night into Monday, and have prompted numerous flood watches and evacuation advisories in so-called “debris flow” areas (i.e. places where they’ve had fires recently) due to the potential for debris flows.
This first storm system has already led to hazardous surf conditions along the coast and flooding watches and has increased travel concerns along several major travel routes.
Storm 2 – Stronger, Colder, More Snow
A second more powerful storm is forecast again shortly behind the first, with expected arrival on Tuesday into Wednesday, with colder temp. and more snowfall. There are predictions that Sierra Nevada Mountains and nearby foothills will receive additional snowfall of several feet, with some forecasting as much as a month’s worth of precipitation over a very short period of time.
At lower elevations, such as the hills around the Bay Area and lower mountain ranges, snow levels are expected to drop below 2,500 feet (unusually low for this time of year). Due to the strength of the cold core associated with this system, there may be elevated risk of snow and slushy travel conditions at modest elevations.
Flooding and Wind Hazards become more prevalent
Both storms come with significant risks of flooding and wind:
Flood watches and evacuations have been issued across multiple counties in Southern California, especially around burn scars that are now highly susceptible to flash floods.
In addition, winds blowing along the coast are expected to be strong, with advisories for high surf also in effect along much of the coastline. These conditions pose serious threats to beach erosion, power outages and other marine related incidents.
Finally, forecast data support possible severe weather during the week ahead (e.g., heavy rain, isolated tornadoes and rapid runoff) will occur over the Central Valley and the Bay Area later in the week.
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Impacts on travel and safety
The current sequence of storms has already and will continue to create significant travel disruptions:
- Highways and passes located near the Sierra Nevada (including many at Lake Tahoe) will experience extreme difficulty for drivers due to heavy accumulations of snow.
- Due to flood worries and possible debris flows from large amounts of rain, road closure alerts have been posted in Southern California.
- Dangerous conditions exist for both mariners and beachgoers because of strong rip currents and high surf.
- Residents and travelers should stay aware of weather forecasts, drive carefully in slippery conditions and follow instructions from emergency agencies regarding evacuations or other notices.
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Water Supply and Longer-Term Climate Context
The winter storms may have disrupted things, but they will increase California’s snowpack and water supply, which were both below normal before the start of this winter. The heavy snow in the mountains will be necessary for adequate water supplies in the spring and summer, and the storms may also recharge water supplies.
However, forecasters warn that flooding, the risk of landslides, and the disruption of transportation caused by these storms might outweigh any immediate benefits, and that more storms are likely to arrive soon.
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