As Iran’s hostilities with the United States and Israel continue to grow, its warnings have extended past the already troubled Strait of Hormuz, indicating that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait—an important choke point in the Red Sea—could become a target in the event that the fighting escalates even more.
These warnings may indicate a potential expansion of military confrontation into yet another strategic maritime corridor. This has sparked concerns of a much larger regional and economic crisis.
The strategic value of the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait
The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is considered a key link between the continents of Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal—making it known as the “Gate of Tears.”
The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is one of the major routes of commercial shipping throughout the world, including the shipping of oil and liquefied natural gas. Disruptions to shipping through this route would have a devastating impact on global supply chains between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
The closure of this strait would divert vessels around the entire continent of Africa, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of shipping and delay.
Existing pressures in the Strait of Hormuz would be compounded by Iran targeting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, increasing the disruption to global supply chains.
Also read: Shadows over the Strait: The US-Israel Joint Offensive and the Shifting
Role of the Houthis backed by Iran
The majority of the immediate threats to Bab-el-Mandeb originate from Iran’s regional partners, especially Yemen’s Houthi movement. Therefore, the Houthis have made statements threatening to establish a naval blockade in support of Iran.
Houthi officials have suggested:
- Blocking ships related to US and/or Israel from entering Israeli ports will stop all ships from using Israeli ports.
- Expanding US military presence in the Red Sea.
- Intelligence estimates that these events could happen if conflict in Israel increases.
Global economic risks as a result of Bab el Mandeb’s threats during these time are compounded with already strained oil and gas markets due to disruptions from the Straits of Hormuz, and additional disruption will create another crisis for energy.
Read also: 7 Demands from Iran to end war with US
Repercussions of another crisis could include:
Increasing prices of oil and gas, rising shipping and insurance expenses, delays in shipment for products including electronics, food and consumer goods, and rising inflation around the world.
Experts warn that if simultaneous disruptions occur in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb, there will be severe restrictions on energy supply and global trade.
The Red Sea is becoming more recognized as the next flashpoint in the Iran conflict. Blockades and/or attacks in Bab el Mandeb are already prompting many shipping companies to re-evaluate their routes or business operations.
Current strategic assessments suggest that the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are becoming the two most important theaters of military operations to determine how the conflict unfolds and its impact on a global level.
Read more: Underwater research centre in Iran bombed
Outlook
The announcement of a possible blocking of shipping lanes is causing global markets and shipping networks to see an increase in risk and tension in business trade.
If Iran or its allies make good on this threat to block shipping channels, then there will be significant consequences worldwide:
- A seriously heightened level of global maritime security threat
- A disruption of international trade for an extended period
- Continued military tensions and military confrontations in the Middle East.
At the present time, we still have an open Bab-el-Mandeb Strait—but again, there is a high level of geopolitical risk associated with its status.
I am a versatile content writer from the MP region, covering politics, business, crime, current affairs, entertainment, video games, and sports with clear insights, engaging analysis, and timely, reader-focused updates.
